DYNAMIC LIFE TABLE MODEL FOR AEDES-AEGYPTI (DIPTERA, CULICIDAE) - SIMULATION AND VALIDATION

The container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM) is a weath er driven, dynamic life table simulation model of Aedes aegypti (L.) a nd similar nondiapausing Aedes mosquitoes that inhabit artificial and natural containers. This paper presents a validation of CIMSiM simulat ing Ae. aegypti using several independent series of data that were not used in model development. Validation data sets include laboratory wo rk designed to elucidate the role of diet on fecundity and rates of la rval development and survival. Comparisons are made with four field st udies conducted in Bangkok, Thailand, on seasonal changes in populatio n dynamics and with a field study in New Orleans, LA, on larval habita t. Finally, predicted ovipositional activity of Ae. aegypti in seven c ities in the southeastern United States for the period 1981-1985 is co mpared with a data set developed by the U.S. Public Health Service. On the basis of these comparisons, we believe that, for stated design go als, CIMSiM adequately simulates the population dynamics of Ae. aegypt i in response to specific information on weather and immature habitat. We anticipate that it will be useful in simulation studies concerning the development and optimization of control strategies and that, with further field validation, can provide entomological inputs for a deng ue virus transmission model.