DEVELOPING FORECASTS FOR BETTER PLANNING

Improvements in accuracy do not necessarily result in more valuable fo recasts. Forecasts are of little value, no matter how accurate they ar e, if they are not used. Many planners distrust forecasts. To help ens ure that forecasts are used, forecasters have to determine what types of forecasts are needed. Based on interviews with a dozen veteran fore casters and extensive personal experience, the author develops guideli nes for improving the value of forecasts by including planners in the forecast development process. Forecasting reports should be simple and easy to interpret. A preliminary report should be distributed for sug gestions to resolve possible problems before the final presentation. A fter the forecasting numbers are distributed, forecasters should follo w up to see how forecasts are used. Such group efforts in preparing fo recasts typically improve both the accuracy and the acceptability and thus the value of forecasts.