OVERESTIMATING CAUSALITY - ATTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF CONFIRMATORY PROCESSING

People may routinely overestimate the strength of a hypothesized cause of an outcome. In 4 experiments, Ss exaggerated the extent to which a n outcome resulted from a focal cause. The tendency was attenuated whe n Ss were prompted to explain the outcome or consider alternative caus es before the judgment. Surprisingly, stronger causal inferences were drawn when Ss were highly accountable for their judgments. The results indicate that causal inferences are often mediated by the confirmator y processes that have been delineated in previous hypothesis testing r esearch.