PROJECTED NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASE MORTALITY IN THE UNITED-STATES, 1990-2040

Between 1990 and 2040, the United States elderly population is expecte d to grow from 31.6 to 68.1 million. In order to assess the implicatio ns of this increase on the mortality from neurodegenerative diseases i n the United States, we used Census Bureau population estimates to for mulate projections of the annual number of deaths from neurodegenerati ve diseases and from six comparison conditions (liver cirrhosis, colon cancer, lung cancer, cancer of the female breast, multiple sclerosis, and malignant melanoma), assuming that the United States disease-age- gender-race-specific death rates for 1985-1988 remain constant between 1990 and 2040. We find that neurodegenerative disease mortality incre ases by 119-231%, depending on the model of population growth used. Fo r the 'middle' population growth model, the increase in annual neurode generative disease mortality is 166%. The major component of this incr ease is the rise in deaths attributed to dementia. For the six compari son diseases, the increases in mortality range from 52 (multiple scler osis) to 130% (colon cancer). Given the current level of underascertai nment of neurodegenerative disease mortality and the conservative natu re of the Census Bureau estimates of future population, it is likely t hat these projections are underestimates. The implications of these da ta are discussed.