NURSE MANPOWER DEMAND - A REVIEW OF UNITED-KINGDOM METHODOLOGIES

Forecasting the demand for nurses is a complex and difficult problem. However, in a climate of economic cutbacks and disadvantageous demogra phic trends, it is essential that adequate methods are developed to pr edict both the supply and demand for nurse manpower. To this end a num ber of methods have been constructed, particularly in the last decade. In this paper we survey the work that has been done to provide an eff ective way of forecasting nurse manpower demand. The two most common a pproaches are from the 'top-down' or 'bottom-up'. However, an evolutio nary method which allows for modification and detailed refinement is m ore likely to provide a means of taking into account the complexities of the system. Finally, we focus on the nursing hours per patient (NHP P) ratio as a possible tool for demand forecasting. This index is easi ly calculated and is readily adaptable to the bottom-up approach.