Forecasting the demand for nurses is a complex and difficult problem.
However, in a climate of economic cutbacks and disadvantageous demogra
phic trends, it is essential that adequate methods are developed to pr
edict both the supply and demand for nurse manpower. To this end a num
ber of methods have been constructed, particularly in the last decade.
In this paper we survey the work that has been done to provide an eff
ective way of forecasting nurse manpower demand. The two most common a
pproaches are from the 'top-down' or 'bottom-up'. However, an evolutio
nary method which allows for modification and detailed refinement is m
ore likely to provide a means of taking into account the complexities
of the system. Finally, we focus on the nursing hours per patient (NHP
P) ratio as a possible tool for demand forecasting. This index is easi
ly calculated and is readily adaptable to the bottom-up approach.