DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS AS A NONSPECIFIC, GRADED RISK FOR PSYCHIATRIC DIAGNOSES

Using data from a 16-year follow-up of a nationally representative sam ple of 6,913 adults, measures of depressive symptoms were used to pred ict psychiatric diagnoses taken from hospitalization records. In propo rtional hazards analyses, two measures of depression were significantl y associated with subsequent diagnoses of depression and other psychia tric disorders after statistical control for demographic variables and previous history of psychological problems. Depressive symptoms predi cted late as well as early occurrence of psychiatric diagnoses and sho wed a pattern of increasing risk with increasing scores, even below cl inical cutoffs. This pattern of results is consistent with the view th at depressive symptoms predict future psychiatric disorders largely be cause they serve as proxy measures of some chronic vulnerability, such as the normal personality dimension of neuroticism.