FORECASTING HOURLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND USING TIME-VARYING SPLINES

Authors
HARVEY A KOOPMAN SJ
Citation
A. Harvey et Sj. Koopman, FORECASTING HOURLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND USING TIME-VARYING SPLINES, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(424), 1993, pp. 1228-1236
Citations number
10
Categorie Soggetti
Statistic & Probability","Statistic & Probability
Journal title
Journal of the American Statistical Association → ACNP
Volume
88
Issue
424
Year of publication
1993
Pages
1228 - 1236
Database
ISI
SICI code
Abstract
A method for modeling a changing periodic pattern is developed. The us e of time-varying splines enables this to be done relatively parsimoni ously. The method is applied in a model used to forecast hourly electr icity demand, with the periodic movements being intradaily or intrawee kly. The. full model contains other components, including a temperatur e response, which is also modeled using splines.