Bec. Nordin et al., A 5-YEAR LONGITUDINAL-STUDY OF FOREARM BONE MASS IN 307 POSTMENOPAUSAL WOMEN, Journal of bone and mineral research, 8(12), 1993, pp. 1427-1432
We measured forearm bone mineral content at the beginning and end of a
5 year period in 307 untreated postmenopausal volunteers. We also mea
sured height, weight, and a number of biochemical variables in plasma
and urine after an overnight fast. The initial mean age of the subject
s was 59.0 years (range 39-72), and the mean years since menopause was
10.0 (range 1-37). The mean forearm BMC fell from 1034 +/- 9.6 (SEM)
to 982 +/- 9.3 mg/cm (P < 0.001). The coefficient of correlation betwe
en the first and second measurements was 0.96. The mean rate of change
was -1.0% per annum (with a 99% range of -4 to 1% per annum), which a
greed well with previous estimates from cross-sectional data. There wa
s a significant negative correlation between rate of change in bone ma
ss and initial value (r = -0.23; P < 0.001), which was eliminated by e
xpressing change as a percentage of initial bone mass. Of the other va
riables measured, the one that was most significantly related to the p
ercentage change in bone mass was the urinary hydroxyproline/creatinin
e ratio (r = -0.35; P < 0.001), which we regard as a marker only. By s
tepwise regression, the only significant determinants of the rate of c
hange in bone mass were body weight (positive, P < 0.001), years since
menopause (positive, P < 0.005), urine calcium (negative, P < 0.01),
and serum estrone (positive, P < 0.05). The rate of change in BMC was
not significantly related to dietary calcium, plasma alkaline phosphat
ase, serum DHEAS, or any other variable measured at the outset or to s
erum PTH or serum osteocalcin measured at the conclusion.