VICARIOUS VIOLENCE - SPATIAL EFFECTS ON SOUTHERN LYNCHINGS, 1890-1919

This article considers what effect lynchings in one location had on ly nchings elsewhere. The ''contagion'' model predicts that lynchings in one area increased the probability of lynchings in nearby areas, while the ''deterrence'' model expects the probability of lynchings in a gi ven locale to decline when lynchings occurred elsewhere. County-level data for 10 southern states yield strong evidence of a negative spatia l effect for three time periods (1895-99, 1905-9, and 1915-19) consist ent with the deterrence model. Two interpretations for this spatial ef fect are: (1) whites were satisfied that local blacks were sufficientl y threatened by nearby lynchings; (2) blacks altered their behavior to minimize conflict with local whites.