TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH-CURVES - A COMPETITION OF FORECASTING MODELS

In order to determine procedures for appropriate model selection of te chnological growth curves, numerous time series that were representati ve of growth behavior were collected and categorized according to data characteristics. Nine different growth curve models were each fitted onto the various data sets in an attempt to determine which growth cur ve models achieved the best forecasts for differing types of growth da ta. The analysis of the results gives rise to a new approach for selec ting appropriate growth curve models for a given set of data, prior to fitting the models, based on the characteristics of the data sets.