THE DIFFUSION OF FERTILITY-CONTROL IN TAIWAN - EVIDENCE FROM POOLED CROSS-SECTION TIME-SERIES MODELS

This article assesses whether Taiwan's rapid fertility transition over the period 1960-1980 was facilitated by interpersonal diffusion. Annu al data on some 361 areal units are available; these support the estim ation of dynamic fixed-effect models of marital fertility. The statist ical models take aim at the principal empirical prediction of diffusio n hypotheses: the implication of autoregressive behaviour in fertility . We test for autoregressive effects over time within areas, and also for spatial effects whereby fertility control in one geographical area has a spillover influence on another. The Taiwanese data produce clea r evidence in support of within-area diffusion. The evidence for cross -area diffusion is much weaker; there is surprisingly little suggestio n of city-to-country diffusion. The estimates imply that interpersonal diffusion amplified the impact of Taiwan's family planning programme on fertility.