BACKGROUND: There is an uncertainty of which is going to be the trend
of cardiovascular disease in Spain. In the present study cardiovascula
r disease mortality is described from 1975 to 1992 in Catalonia, and a
prediction until 1997 is made, assuming the same trend. Possible caus
es of this trend are analyzed. METHODS: Deaths from cardiovascular dis
ease, ischaemic heart disease and stroke have been identified from 197
5 to 1992. It has been used the direct method for standardization by a
ge and sex, using the European population as the standard population.
Logarithmic transformations of the standardized rates were used for ea
ch cause of death and for both sexes. Linear regression analysis was u
sed to adjust the evolution of the rates in the time period. RESULTS:
There is a reduction of 2.6 % and 2.7 % by year in rates for cardiovas
cular diseases mortality for both males and females respectively, a re
duction of 1.2 % by year in rates for ischaemic heart disease in males
and a reduction of 1.8 % in females, and a reduction of 4.0 % and 4.2
% for stroke in males and females respectively. CONCLUSIONs: Trends i
n cardiovascular disease mortality reveal a decline for both males and
females, mostly due to a reduction in stroke mortality; ischaemic hea
rt disease mortality slighlty decreased especifically during the perio
d 1983-1992.