Measures of attitude concerning exposure to the sun, and judgements of
risk and other beliefs concerning skin cancer and four other problems
(stomach cancer, deafness, AIDS and sunstroke) were obtained from a q
uestionnaire completed by 176 university students. Subjects also estim
ated the incidence of each problem using one of three response formats
. The highest incidence estimates were obtained when subjects were ask
ed to guess at an absolute number, and the lowest when they used a sca
le which differentiated between lower frequencies, while grouping high
er frequencies into a single response category. The effect of the resp
onse scale format, however, did not generalize to other ratings of per
sonal risk. Subjects' ratings of their personal risk, compared with th
eir peers, showed an optimistic bias over the five problems as a whole
, particularly for AIDS, but not reliably so in the case of skin cance
r. Optimism was inversely related to the amount of thought given to ea
ch problem. Men and women did not differ overall in their optimism reg
arding their own risk of skin cancer. However, differences as a functi
on of gender and optimism were found on various behavioural attitudes.
The results are discussed in relation to a tendency of disregard base
-rates in subjective risk judgements, unrealistic optimism, and implic
ations for health education.