PARAMETERS ESTIMATION FOR A 1ST-ORDER IRREVERSIBLE REACTION - A STOCHASTIC APPROACH

A first order irreversible reaction is investigated using a stochastic model in order to account for the perturbations inherent to any chemi cal process. The main conclusion is that the concentration is distribu ted according to a lognormal law rather than to a normal one. This app roach leads to a maximum likelihood estimate of the kinetic constant w hich is different with respect to the usual least squares estimate. Mo reover, the stochastic model allows us to predict not only the expecte d value of the concentration, but to get a confidence interval, too. S tatistical tests are provided in order to detect outliers, high-levera ge and influential points.