A key question concerning affirmative action is whether the labor-mark
et gains it brings to minorities can continue without it becoming a pe
rmanent fixture in the labor market. We argue that this depends on how
the policy affects employers' beliefs about the productivity of minor
ity workers. We study the joint determination of employer beliefs and
worker productivity in a model of statistical discrimination in job as
signments. We prove that, even when identifiable groups are equally en
dowed ex ante, affirmative action can bring about a situation in which
employers (correctly) perceive the groups to be unequally productive,
ex post.