QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES FOR THE EFFECTS OF AIDS PUBLIC-EDUCATION ON HIV-INFECTIONS

Previous projections of HIV infection have not accounted explicitly fo r AIDS public information. The present analysis does so, using compute r content analysis of AIDS news stories to make time trend forecasts o f both HIV infection and knowledge, attitudes, and sexual behaviors re levant to AIDS. The data show that there was a rapid rise in infection s before public information took effect. Then news about AIDS, its mod es of transmission and high risk groups ted to a 3-4-fold decrease in high risk sex among gay/bisexual men by the late 1980s. The result was a diminished infection rate saving 580 000 to 1.9 million lives. In m ore recent times, rates of HIV infection are forecast to increase agai n. although slowly, in small part because people are less prudent and in large part because the pool of infected individuals has greatly exp anded.