DETERMINANTS OF CANDIDATE EMERGENCE IN US HOUSE ELECTIONS - AN EXPLORATORY-STUDY

The difficulty with studying the challenger side of the incumbency eff ect-the unwillingness of potentially strong challengers to run against U.S. House incumbents-has been in identifying strong potential candid ates who, in fact, decide not to run. We rely upon a sample of politic ally astute informants to identify potential candidates prior to the 1 994 elections. Our survey of these potential candidates reveals three common characteristics: they had many of the attributes one would expe ct of strong House challengers, there was variance in what they stated was the likelihood of their running for the House in 1994, and they w ere most strongly influenced by what they perceived to be their chance s of winning their party's nomination in their district. In addition, they understood that they would be much less likely to receive their p arty's nomination if they shared party affiliation with the incumbent, a finding that reinforces the incumbency effect. We also find that re spondents who held elective office at the time of the survey were more likely to run, and that there is little evidence that personal factor s related to the costs and benefits of running weigh heavily in the de cision to run.