PROSPECTS FOR A NEW ASIA-PACIFIC MULTILATERAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENT

The collapse of the Cold War structure has led to regional integration and multi-polarization around the world, caused by the collapse of th e Soviet Union, the relative decline of US national power, and the ris e of the EC and Japan. European nations have paved the way to establis h political and economic integration as well as collective security ar rangement, mainly through the CSCE (Conference on Security and Coopera tion in Europe) and the EC. The Asia-Pacific region has passed through changes in the security environment, but neither broad forums compara ble to the EC nor a multilateral security arrangement any similar to t he CSCE yet exist. Instead. the nations faithfully rely on the US-cent ered bilateral security arrangements, which seems likely to face limit ations as uncertainties in the region increase Accordingly, it is time to find another security option that complements the limitations of t he traditional bilateral arrangements. This paper defines the concept, delineates obstacles and rationales, ard seeks the most appropriate f ramework. In seeking the best arrangement two preconditions are set: t hat a new security arrangement can only be plausible through maximum u tilization of the traditional bilateral network, and that the United S tates and Japan should be core members A few models are considered as framework material for a new security arrangement, based on the existi ng NPSCD (North Pacific Security Cooperative Dialogue) ASEAN-PMC (Asso ciation of Southeast Asian Nations Post-Ministerial Conference) and AP EC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) NPSCD was considered for an ope n forum to generate a wide range of issues among all the Asia-Pacific countries, and has the potential to develop into an Asian ''CSCE.'' Bo th ASEAN-PMC and APEC were also examined, with the idea of forming sub regional security networks. The connections presently existing among c ountries holding regular military exercises with the United States can also be exploited to help maximize military confidence-building measu res. None of the models by itself will be able to serve satisfactorily as a new Asia-Pacific multilateral security arrangement. However, est ablishing a multi-layered security arrangement by utilizing the existi ng systems would be quite feasible and may be the best approach at thi s time But it can be done only if the United States and Japan maintain a healthy alliance and cooperative partnership in the region.