When political factors are taken into account, tax reform intended to
be revenue neutral is likely to increase tax revenues. Any reduction i
n the excess burden of the tax system is likely to increase government
revenues because the marginal political cost of tax increases is redu
ced Evidence from the 1986 tax reform in the United States and the ado
ption of the value-added tax in many European countries, where the ref
orms were claimed to be revenue neutral, is consistent with the hypoth
esis that ''revenue neutral'' tax reform generates more government rev
enue.