PREDICTION OF THE IMPACT OF THE SMOKING H ABIT ON THE HEALTH OF THE SPANISH POPULATION AND THE POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF ITS CONTROL

BACKGROUND: Smoking continues to be an important public health problem in Spain, With the aim to know some of the health care consequences d erived from the evolution of this habit in the Spanish population and to anticipate the health care benefits which would be a result of inte rvention on the same the estimations of mortality related with smoking and its control in the next few decades were predicted. METHODS: Math ematic models of simulation of the effects derived from changes in the prevalence of smoking based on the techniques of attributable risk, t he multiplicity of the diseases involved and the time of reversal of t he risk of death following health care intervention were used. RESULTS : In absence of intervention on smoking the number of total deaths by the causes under consideration will, in general, increase, from 1987 t o 2020. The reduction of 40 % in the prevalence of smoking in adult Sp anish smokers over a period of 8 years (1992-2000) would potentially d ecrease the number of cardiovascular deaths by 6,035, deaths by COPD b y 394 and the deaths by malignant tumors studied in the year 2020 by 5 ,237. By the year 2020 the effects of intervention would, in general, be completely manifest. A part of this reduction of mortality would tr anslate in a gaining of 57,323 real years of life in the year 2020. Th ese benefits are also appreciable, although lesser, in the previous ye ars from the beginning of intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking will cont inue to be an important public health problem in Spain in the future. The health care benefits which may be derived from correct application of effective control programs of the same would be appreciable.