Based on nearly 38 000 forecasts of stock prices and exchange rates, i
t appears that non-experts expect the continuation of apparent past 't
rends' in prices. Thus, they are optimistic in bull markets and pessim
istic in bear markets. Interestingly, the subjects hedge their forecas
ts, i.e. their subjective probability distributions are skewed in the
opposite direction. As a result, perceived risk also depends on prior
performance.