DAIRY FARM SURVIVAL IN A METROPOLITAN-AREA - DUTCHESS COUNTY, NEW-YORK, 1984-1990

The effect of nonfarm development on dairy farm survival in New York's highly developed lower Hudson Valley is analyzed. The major hypothesi s is that significant losses of dairy farms during this period are the result of urban development pressures. Contrary to this hypothesis, h owever, the bivariate and multivariate analyses of data from a mail su rvey of all commercial dairy operators in Dutchess County as of 1984 a nd industry survivors, exiters, and new entrants through 1990 demonstr ate that nonfarm development has a negligible effect on dairy farm sur vival; rather, survival is significantly affected by age of operator a nd by family disruption. Thus, demographic and family process factors are found to be more powerful determinants of dairy farm survival in t his particular metropolitan context.