EDUCATIONAL-POLICY, EMPLOYMENT PROGNOSES, AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ON THE LABOR-MARKET

A dynamic forecast model for the labour market is presented Employment and unemployment by education and training and the distribution of tr ained labour among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously (from the macroeconomic model AD AM). Supply of labour by training is derived from a demographic model including flows in the educational system. The basic assumption is tha t changes in mismatch between demand and supply of trained labour by e ducation lead to changes in employment by education. Employers short o f labour by any specific education look for substitutes with alternati ve educations, while unemployed educational groups, unable to find tra ditional employment in traditional industries (for their type of educa tion) seek untraditional jobs.