DEMOGRAPHIC-CHANGE, POLICY FOR THE ELDERL Y, AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF A GREATER NEED FOR PROVISION OF CARE - SOME SCANDINAVIAN PROSPECTS

The paper describes the social compact between the generations. The vi ability of the compact is exposed to severe pressure caused by the exp ected demographic development. The pressure is illustrated by calculat ions for the Scandinavian countries of the demographic burden of provi sion of care, the income transfer burden, and the total economic burde n including benefits in kind. The economic burden is calculated on var ying assumptions with respect to the average age of retirement, the pr ocedure for indexing cash benefits and the development of expenditure on services. It is demonstrated that it is possible to determine balan ced solutions to the intergenerational distributional problem. A chang e of the set-up of the pension system requires readjustments on the pa rt of the individual.