ESCAPING LOCK-IN - THE CASE OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE

The study addresses the issue of technological ''lock-in'' and the pos sibilities of escape from it. Earlier literature on technological lock -in has tended to focus on intraindustry sources of positive feedbacks that are at the core of the technological lock-in phenomena. This stu dy draws attention to the importance of interindustry sources in contr ibuting to technological lock-in. Several possible avenues of escape f rom lock-in are discussed: crisis in existing technology, regulation, technological breakthroughs, changes in taste, emergence of niche mark ets, and new scientific results. The study includes a brief history of the competition among automobile technologies. The analysis of the cu rrent state of the electric vehicle, its technology, and the surroundi ng supporting industries and infrastructures is relatively pessimistic about a rapid transition away from the internal combustion engine tec hnological lock-in. However, regulation could create enough niche mark ets so that some self-reinforcing processes would become possible. In this way, the electric vehicle might emerge as a visible part of the a utomobile market.