Jm. Martin, ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES - SYSTEMIC ASPECTS, TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJECTORIES, AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS, Technological forecasting & social change, 53(1), 1996, pp. 81-95
Technology policies to promote a transition ''away from the carbon ato
m'' must take into account the systemic nature of technological change
in the energy sector. Technological interrelatedness, infrastructure
requirements, and lumpiness of energy sector investments result in the
need to consider technological change as systemic, i.e., beyond the i
ntroduction and diffusion of individual technologies. Consequences of
technological advances are ambivalent. On the one hand, technological
improvements in existing technologies can slow down the development of
new alternatives and radical technological shifts. On the other hand,
technological change generates variety within the system of energy su
pply and end-use technologies, leading to technological pluralism. Thu
s, technology dynamics are characterized by a complex interplay betwee
n irreversibility and diversity. It is on this basis that public techn
ology policy oriented toward sustainable energy development has to be
formulated.