ANALYSIS OF REPORTING DELAYS IN ACQUIRED-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-SYNDROME CASES IN FRANCE

Reporting delays of AIDS cases in France could depend on such factors as geographic area of diagnosis, risk group or time of diagnosis. In o rder to identify the main sources of heterogeneity and to obtain reali stic estimates of the number of diagnosed AIDS cases in France, we tak e into account these reporting co-factors by using a regression model. Results show significant variations between the 4 geographical areas considered (Ile-de-France, Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur, 3 south-west re gions, and the rest of metropolitan France). Reporting delay improved since 1986 in Ile-de-France and the 17 other areas of metropolitan Fra nce, whith an earlier report of heterosexual cases. In the two other a reas, no difference can be evidenced between reporting delays, nor imp rovement of such delay over time. The estimation discrepancies obtaine d are more noticeable over the last concerned year and will therefore have an impact on the epidemic growth previsions. The correction metho ds should therefore take into account these disparities in order to ob tain more realistic predictions of the diagnosed AIDS cases.