THE IMPACT OF POPULATION-GROWTH ON THE STANDARD-OF-LIVING - DEMO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR THE NETHERLANDS

The core of the article can be comprised in the question: Will populat ion ageing become a threat to our standard of living? Because the demo graphic and the economic system - linked together in this question - s hare significant determinants, the future state of both systems has be en derived from the same mother scenarios. In order to explore a broad range of possibilities two strongly contrasting mother scenarios serv e as the starting-points of the analyses. The economic-demographic rel ationship is mediated through a simple Cobb-Douglas production functio n. The question of whether the ageing process will jeopardize the stan dard of living, is, for each of the demographic projections, answered by comparing them with three economic targets, formulated in terms of GNP per capita growth and capital stock growth. The most important con clusion is that in the long run neither of the scenarios developed wil l generate an economic growth comparable with that of the 1960s and 19 70s.