THE LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING FOR A BLACK FOR PRESIDENT - A PROBIT ANALYSIS

The maximum likelihood of the expressed willingness of Americans to vo te for a black for president has not been adequately determined. By em ploying the probit technique, this paper attempts to determine the pos sible ranges of probability that Americans would be willing to vote fo r a black for president. Based on various models from which the probab ilities are calculated, it is found that group-based racial consciousn ess is the main determinant of the likelihood that Americans will expr ess their willingness to vote for a black for president. However, this effect is mediated by schooling, political identification, attitudes towards various racial questions, and region. These may be seen as ins trumental variables that anticipate the type of Americans who would be mostly likely willing to do so.