ANNUAL AND LONG-TERM VARIATION IN THE SURVIVAL RATES OF BRITISH LAPWINGS VANELLUS-VANELLUS

1. In many parts of Britain and in other parts of western Europe, the lapwing Vanellus vanellus is declining. In order to determine if the d ecline in numbers was associated with a reduction in adult or first-ye ar survival rates, an analysis of British ringing recoveries was condu cted. 2. There was no evidence that survival after the first year of l ife was age-dependent. 3. Mean annual adult survival (1930-88) is esti mated at 0.705 +/- 0.031 (+/- 95% confidence intervals). Since 1960, a dult survival has increased to 0.752 +/- 0.046. Two weather variables (mean winter soil temperature and total winter rainfall) explained 69% of the variation in adult survival rates between 1961 and 1979. 4. Me an first-year survival (1930-87) is estimated at 0.595 +/- 0.040 (+/- 95% confidence intervals). As in the adults, the same two weather vari ables (mean winter soil temperature and total winter rainfall) explain ed 55% of the variation in first-year survival rates between 1959 and 1979. 5. In order to replace annual adult losses, lapwings should prod uce in the region of 0-83-0-97 fledglings per pair each year. From a r eview of the available literature, lapwings produced enough fledglings to maintain the population in only 8 out of 24 studies.