THE USE OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN LOCAL PUBLIC-HEALTH DEPARTMENTS - ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR STRATEGIC-PLANNING

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe a nd evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is ou tlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified usin g published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interv iews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking healt h department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probab ility of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The hi gh-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing sce nario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario toget her. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strat egic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminate d or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved manage rial discussion and communication.