DETERMINING TRANSITION-PROBABILITIES - CONFUSION AND SUGGESTIONS

Confusion regarding proper use of the terms rate and risk persists in the literature. This has implications for the proper modeling of progn osis and transition between health states in decision analysis and rel ated techniques. The issue is complicated by the plethora of terms rel ated to rate and risk. Although the suggestion to use the terms force and probability as substitutes for rate and risk has some appeal, the change in terminology by itself is unlikely to solve all the confusion or misuse of terms. This paper clarifies the proper definitions and e stimations of rates and risks and suggests critical factors for the de cision analyst to remember when using, modeling, or interpreting trans ition rates and risks.