THE ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF MARKET FORECASTING

Quantitative forecasting techniques are not much used in organizations . Instead, organizations rely on the judgement of managers working clo se to the product market. Increasingly however, developments at the in terface between marketing and operations require more accurate forecas ting. Quantitative marketing models have that potential. Drawing on th eories from the 'diffusion of innovation' literature and results on 't he barriers to effective implementation', this paper first considers t hose factors that should be included in any complete evaluation of mar ket forecasting. Using this framework and based on detailed survey wor k in a multi-divisional organization, the paper then describes how thi s company produces its market forecasts, and the perceptions of its ma nagers as to inadequacies in the procedures. Reasons are proposed as t o why quantitative forecasting techniques are not effectively used. Th e paper concludes with a discussion of the causes behind the organizat ion's mismanagement of their forecasting activity and how these activi ties might best be improved.