THE PREDICTION OF THE CHANCE TO CONCEIVE IN SUBFERTILE COUPLES

Objective: To develop a model that can predict the chance to conceive spontaneously in subfertile couples. Design: In a cohort study, a cons ecutive series of patients consulting infertility was followed up. We related information from previous history, physical examination, postc oital tests (PCT), semen analyses, and sperma penetration meter tests with the occurrence of a spontaneous pregnancy. Setting: Fertility cen ter in a university hospital. Patients: Nine hundred ninety-six couple s consulting for infertility due to cervical hostility, male subfertil ity, or unexplained infertility. Interventions: None. Main Outcome Mea sure(s): Time between intake and occurrence of the first spontaneous p regnancy. Results: Information from the previous history (duration of infertility, primary or secondary female infertility, age of the woman , fertility problems in male's family), the percentage motile sperm in the first semen analysis, and the result of the first PCT are suffici ent to predict the chance to conceive. A pocket chart is presented for easy use of the model. Conclusions: With a limited amount of diagnost ic information, the chance to conceive spontaneously can be predicted.