AN EXPERT-SYSTEM FOR CHOOSING DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

This paper describes the application of expert systems (ES) for the de cision-making of demand forecasting techniques selection. Professional heuristics and reasoning process used in the selection problem are de veloped. Then an expert system is built to capture the skill and aimed to act as an advisor for choosing suitable demand forecasting techniq ues for use under various general business circumstances. The expert b ehaviour of choice making in this problem area is imitated in that the factor of product life cycle is first taken to determine the possible forecasting techniques for application. Then the reasoning process is continued with other relevant factors for further discrimination amon g the possible techniques so as to confine the selection conclusion.