AN OPTIMIZATION APPROACH TO AREA-BASED FOREST PEST-MANAGEMENT OVER TIME AND SPACE

This paper discusses spatial optimization approaches to managing aggre ssively reproducing and dispersing pests. The relevant land planning a rea is divided into cells, and pest growth and dispersal across those cells are accounted for in integer programs that include choice variab les for applying control treatments to those cells. Two model formulat ions are developed and demonstrated in a simple case example: one that assumes no limit to host capacity and one that assumes a limit to hos t capacity accumulated over time. The formulation with no host capacit y limit is shown to be potentially unrealistic if control treatments a re not limited. Different objective functions and amounts of control t reatment result in optimal strategies that vary from immediate contain ment near the pest's origin to delayed containment at an area away fro m the pest's origin. Both formulations are difficult to solve, reflect ing the exploratory nature of this paper.