MINIMUM SIZE OF THE AIDS EPIDEMIC IN IRELAND

We examine data on the incidence of AIDS since the epidemic started in Ireland in 1982. From this data we make short term predictions on the lower bound of the number of AIDS cases likely to occur in future yea rs. By the year 2001 we expect to see at least a total of 1850 AIDS ca ses in Ireland. For the two largest risk groups in Ireland, homosexual /bisexual and intravenous drug users (IDU's), separate predictions are made. The rate of increase in the latter group is higher and we expec t to see a total of 720 AIDS cases by the year 2001 in the homo/bisexu al group and 1,100 in the IDU group. These predictions show an increas e in rates. It must be emphasised that these numbers do not include ne w cases of infection after January 1992, which would further inflate t he rates.