THE IMPORTANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC UNCERTAINTY - AN EXAMPLE FROM THE HELMETED HONEYEATER LICHENOSTOMUS MELANOPS CASSIDIX

Models that account for aspects of the behaviour and ecology of helmet ed honeyeaters Lichenostomus melanops cassidix are developed. These hi ghlight the importance of demographic uncertainty in population viabil ity analysis. Differences between and relationships among individuals are important components of population dynamics. Adding individual det ail to demographic models can change estimates of extinction risk. Dem ographic uncertainty can cause greater variation in population size th an indicated by standard modelling procedures. Accurate prediction of this level of variation is limited by ignorance of population dynamics . Implications for metapopulation dynamics and reserve design are disc ussed The helmeted honeyeater population faces an appreciable risk of decline from demographic uncertainty alone.