EXPLAINING ELECTION OUTCOMES IN CANADA - ECONOMY AND POLITICS

The article proposes a simple model to explain election outcomes in Ca nadian federal elections. The model hypothesizes that the share of the vote obtained by the Liberal party depends on deviations from the ave rage rate of unemployment, inflation and income growth, and on the pre sence or absence of a party leader from Quebec. The results confirm th e hypotheses regarding the impact of unemployment and party leader, bu t inflation and income growth prove to be nonsignificant. The evidence also suggests that the model may be less satisfactory for elections i nvolving governments that had been in place for less than a year (1958 and 1980).