PERSISTENCE OF TRANSIENTS IN SPATIALLY STRUCTURED ECOLOGICAL MODELS

Simple discrete-time ecological models for a species with alternating reproduction and dispersal are shown to have complex transient dynamic s. If the density dependence (nonlinearity) is strong enough, then the time required to reach the final dynamics is usually very long, appro aching thousands of generations, and there are typically very sudden c hanges in the form of the dynamics. Apparent chaos can change to cycle s or vice versa. These results are consistent with observed sudden cha nges in the form of the dynamics of a single species and imply that tr ansient dynamics of ecological models may be more relevant than long-t erm behavior.