Eb. Hayes et al., LONG-TERM TRENDS IN BLOOD LEAD LEVELS AMONG CHILDREN IN CHICAGO - RELATIONSHIP TO AIR LEAD LEVELS, Pediatrics, 93(2), 1994, pp. 195-200
Objectives. To evaluate trends in blood lead levels among children in
Chicago from 1968 through 1988, and to determine the impact of the cha
nges in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) blood lea
d level of concern. Methods. We reviewed a systematic sample of blood
lead screening records of the Chicago Department of Health Laboratory
for high-risk children aged 6 months to 5 years. Median blood lead lev
els for each quarter of the years 1974 through 1988 were determined an
d regressed against mean air lead levels recorded at air-monitoring st
ations in Chicago during the same period. Results. Median blood lead l
evels declined from 30 mu g/dL in 1968 to 12 mu g/dL in 1988, and were
strongly associated with declining average air lead levels (r = .8, P
< .001) from 1974 through 1988. A regression model using log-transfor
med data predicted a decline of 0.56 mu g/dL in the median blood lead
level with each 0.1 mu g/m(3) decline in the mean air lead level when
the air lead level was near 1.0 mu g/m(3); the predicted slope was ste
eper at lower air lead levels. Despite the nearly 20-fold reduction in
air lead levels, the median blood lead level of 12 mu g/dL in 1988 in
dicates substantial continuing lead exposure. The CDC blood lead level
of concern was lowered twice from 1968 to 1988, but due to the declin
e in blood lead levels, fewer than 30% of the children were above the
level of concern throughout most of the study. Conclusion. Although su
bstantial lead exposure persists in Chicago, reductions in airborne le
ad emissions seem to have contributed to a long-term decline in the me
dian blood lead level of high-risk Chicago children.