A STATISTICAL-MODEL OF POSSIBLE FUTURE HUMAN ACTIONS

A critical review has been carried out of models of possible future hu man actions during the long-term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as altern atives to the more conventional Poisson model, and the problems of par ameterisation have been addressed. Where the Poisson model unduly exag gerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be i ntroduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is thought less likely for deep repositories. Consideration of sta te transitions within a Markov model highlights the value of increasin g the availability of site information.