CRIME, DETERRENCE, AND RIGHT-TO-CARRY CONCEALED HANDGUNS

Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. counties from 1977 to 1992, we find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes, without increasing accidental deaths. If those states without right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1 992, county- and state-level data indicate that approximately 1,500 mu rders would have been avoided yearly. Similarly, we predict that rapes would have declined by over 4,000, robbery by over 11,000, and aggrav ated assaults by over 60,000. We also find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth, where the probability of contact b etween the criminal and the victim is minimal. Further, higher arrest and conviction rates consistently reduce crime. The estimated annual g ain from all remaining states adopting these laws was at least $5.74 b illion in 1992. The annual social benefit from an additional concealed handgun permit is as high as $5,000.