An in vitro skin explant model has been used to predict the severity o
f acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in 34 HLA-identical bone marr
ow transplant recipients (correlation coefficient 0.6 p < 0.001). Supe
rnatants from HLA-matched patient/donor mixed lymphocyte cultures (MLC
s) were analysed for levels oftumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha)
and interferon gamma (IFN gamma). High levels of both cytokines corre
lated with the developmentof GVHD grades II or above (p < 0.05). The s
upernatants were also tested for induction of class II MHC antigen exp
ression on third party skin and results correlated with clinical outco
me in 17 of 22 cases (77%) (correlation coefficient 0.65, p < 0.001. T
he results suggest that measurement of both TNF alpha and IFN gamma in
HLA-matched MLC supernatants is of predictive value and that the skin
explant model is a useful model for studying the aetiology of GVHD in
humans.