CONFLICT-ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING COALITIONS IN MULTILATERALNEGOTIATIONS

Definitions and algorithms are presented for predicting, modeling and analysing coalitions that may form in group decision and negotiation. In particular, two metrics are defined and compared for predicting whi ch coalitions are most likely to form in a given dispute. Moreover, a technique is developed for calculating the overall preferences for a c oalition based upon the ordinal preferences of the coalition members, To demonstrate how the new developments in coalition analysis work in practice, they are applied to an actual international conflict over tr ade in services. The final results of the case study show how coalitio ns can affect the compromise resolutions or equilibria to the trading conflict.