RISK CALCULATION OF TYPE-2 DIABETES

The paper presents an analysis of the risk of developing Type 2 diabet es according to family history and anthropometric variables. The age o f diabetes onset was analysed in 2024 diabetics. We obtained several g roups according to family history. In each group taken separately, the data describing the cumulative percentage of diabetes onset was fitte d by logistic curve F(x) = pl(l + p2 p3(((x/10)-p4))). Comparing the se curves we see that cumulative age-dependent risk increases from the group of randomly chosen persons through the group of first degree re latives to the children of diabetics. The highest risk of diabetes ons et is determined by the curve representing the group of known diabetic s. Another analysis was performed in a different group of 390 obese su bjects (34 diabetics among them). Male diabetics had significantly hig her body mass index (BMI) and weight than male non-diabetics. Female d iabetics showed significantly higher weight, body mass index, waist to hip ratio (WHR) and age than female non-diabetics. Elimination of fac tors with randomization and matching showed a complicated relationship between diabetes, age and anthropometric variables. Using stepwise lo gistic regression we obtained the model for prediction of diabetes ris k based on age, BMI, WHR: probability of diabetes = exp(u)/(l + exp(u) ), where u = -13.9 + 0.05431 age + 6.789 * WHR + 0.07881 * BMI for o bese women, u = -11.84 + 10.01 a WHR for obese men. In conclusion, gen etic factors are the most important and can be exactly quantified in T ype 2 diabetes. The importance of anthropometric variables for predict ion of diabetes risk is also presented.