THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF SELF-RATED HEALTH, ACTIVITIES OF DAILY LIVING, AND AMBULATORY ACTIVITY FOR CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY AMONG THE ELDERLY - A 3-YEAR FOLLOW-UP URBAN JAPAN

Objective: To examine the predictive power of self-rated health, activ ities of daily living (ADL), and ambulatory activity for different cau ses of death in a representative sample of older persons. Design: Thre e-year prospective cohort study. Setting: Sendai City, Japan. Particip ants: 2,552 persons 65 years and older at baseline in 1988. Measuremen ts: Independent variables (measured by self-report of participants) we re age, sex, self-rated health, ADL, ambulatory activity level, and us e of medical care. Dependent variables were mortalities from cancer, s troke, and heart disease. Main Results: Self-rated health significantl y predicted cancer mortality but not the other two causes of mortality . ADL disability was a significant predictor for stroke mortality, and limitation in ambulatory activity significantly increased the risk of heart disease mortality. The associations between ADL and stroke mort ality as well as between ambulatory activity and heart disease mortali ty remained significant even after excluding those who reported having the index disease in 1988. Conclusion: The predictive powers of self- rated health, ADL function, and ambulatory activity varied significant ly with the underlying causes of death among the elderly.