FORECASTING RETAIL SALES AND DEALER INVENTORIES - A SIMULATION AND DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEM

A simulation model for forecasting retail sales and dealer inventories is presented. The model is based on the average time in distribution (ATD), a new statistic calculated from warranty cards returned by cust omers after purchasing a product. While warranty card returns are high ly random both in number and arrival rate, the ATD is a relatively sta ble indicator rarely used in forcasting. Sales and inventories ave gen erated by fitting their estimated ATDs to warranty cards. A decision s upport system (DSS), incorporating the simulation model as well as the standard components database, model base user interface, report and g raph facilities is outlined and discussed