I. Spiegler et J. Herniter, FORECASTING RETAIL SALES AND DEALER INVENTORIES - A SIMULATION AND DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEM, Simulation, 61(4), 1993, pp. 268-274
A simulation model for forecasting retail sales and dealer inventories
is presented. The model is based on the average time in distribution
(ATD), a new statistic calculated from warranty cards returned by cust
omers after purchasing a product. While warranty card returns are high
ly random both in number and arrival rate, the ATD is a relatively sta
ble indicator rarely used in forcasting. Sales and inventories ave gen
erated by fitting their estimated ATDs to warranty cards. A decision s
upport system (DSS), incorporating the simulation model as well as the
standard components database, model base user interface, report and g
raph facilities is outlined and discussed