ISRAEL AND FUTURE BORDERS - ASSESSMENT OF A DYNAMIC PROCESS

This article deals with the question of determining a future Israeli-P alestinian border within the context of an originally developed analyt ical framework. Following the presentation of a previous model (Tagil et al., 1977, 1984), the authors offer a greatly modified and more det ailed framework for the analysis of border determination. The modified framework emphasizes factors such as national ethos and two alternati ve national 'imperatives' (territorial and ethnic) as important determ inants of borders. The article then applies the model to the Israeli c ase, offering detailed historical and statistical data related to the determination of a future Israeli-Palestinian border. The article demo nstrates the dramatic transformation (among Israel's elites and public alike) from a territorial to ethnic imperative and from integration ( annexation of the West Bank and Gaza) to separation (Israeli withdrawa l from the territories). In offering a general model for studying inte rstate and intercommunal conflict, and in demonstrating its applicabil ity to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this article is of immediate relevance to numerous other ethnic disputes around the world. The arti cle, originally submitted three months prior to the Israeli-Palestinia n mutual recognition of September 1993, has assumed particular importa nce by identifying the parameters that may determine the future border s in the Middle East.