THE IMPACT OF SUPERPOWER ARMS TRANSFERS ON CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE-EAST

I explore the relationship between superpower arms transfers and the A rab-Israeli rivalry. My empirical analysis suggests that Soviet arms t ransfers to the Middle East, more than American transfers, have exacer bated interstate rivalry in the region. It also suggests that Soviet a rms transfers, again more than American transfers, have encouraged com pensatory arming by the other superpower. These conclusions derive fro m the results of cross-correlation analysis, Granger-causality tests, and variance decompositions, and are quite robust. While my findings p aint a rather unflattering portrait of the effects of superpower invol vement in the region, they do constitute grounds for optimism in light of current developments.